Sunday, July 5, 2009

No other finance minister in independent India has presented an interim Budget before the elections

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee will have a unique distinction. No other finance minister in independent India has presented an interim Budget before the elections and then followed that up with a regular Budget for the same year after being voted back to power
Focus on how markets will react
Hike in cess on fuel unlikely
No impact on daily lives: survey


Budget makes no difference to households, says survey
New Delhi: More than half the respondents of a pre-Budget survey think this annual exercise doesn’t impact their daily lives.

Even as Pranab Mukherjee rises to present the Union Budget in Parliament at 11 am on Monday, a nationwide survey reveals that most Indian households think this annual exercise has no significant effect on their daily lives.

Adding to this, a majority (60 per cent) of the 5,468 households surveyed, covering different income groups, said the Budget document did not make much sense to them and a quarter of the respondents derided the relevance of the exercise because they believed most policy decisions were taken outside the Budget anyway.

The survey, conducted by UTVi-CVoter to gauge the expectations of ordinary citizens from the Budget, found that the majority wanted the Budget to be a less secretive document and easier to understand.

The survey also found that almost half the respondents did not believe that their lives were getting better and as much as 68 per cent felt the taxes they paid were too high and should be reduced to leave more money in people's hands to meet rising day-to-day expenditure.

Respondents felt a reduction in personal tax levels would make consumer goods, health insurance, automotives and certain food items like dairy products, tea and coffee cheaper, leading to positive impacts on the cost and quality of living.

In 2008-09, when the global economic crisis started impacting India, 48 per cent of the respondents revealed that their expenditure had gone up and incomes were static while around 20 per cent experienced a surge in expenditure and declining income.

The survey revealed that nearly 75 per cent of the respondents felt an income of Rs 50,000 a month is enough for a family of four with nearly a third saying incomes should be made tax-free.

The survey also found that the quality of life of around 65 per cent of Indian households has deteriorated in the past one year because of rising prices, especially of food articles. The inflation rate has remained below 3 per cent since December 2008 and entered negative territory three weeks ago.

Besides rising prices of food, prices of other items like cooking gas, local transport, airfares, education, fuel prices, property rentals, healthcare and even expensive domestic help have significantly increased the cost of living for the average Indian household.

As far as the future outlook on the quality of life is concerned, public opinion is divided with 38 per cent saying the quality of life will be static, another 38 per cent predicting an improvement, with the rest expecting a deterioration in the next year.

Source: Business Standard

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After 25 years, Pranab scores a double first

New Delhi: He’s the first finance minister to present Budgets on either side of an election and the first to do so after a quarter-century gap

When Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee rises in the Lok Sabha Monday to present the Union Budget for 2009-10, he would have earned a unique distinction. No other finance minister in independent India has presented an interim Budget before the elections and then followed that up with a regular Budget for the same year after being voted back to power.

His prime minister, Manmohan Singh (finance minister from 1991 to 1996), presented the Interim Budget for 1996-97 before the polls, but the Congress lost the general elections held in April-May 1996. Palaniappan Chidambaram became the finance minister under the United Front government and presented the regular Budget in July 1996.

Yashwant Sinha faced a similar fate. As finance minister in the Chandra Shekhar government, he presented the Interim Budget for 1991-92, but his party lost the elections, paving the way for the P V Narasimha Rao government. Jaswant Singh also presented the Interim Budget for 2004-05, but the National Democratic Alliance did not return to power after the elections. It was Chidambaram, this time under the United Progressive Alliance, who presented the regular Budget for 2004-05.

There have been nine more Interim Budgets since independence. However, none of these was presented before the elections. In fact, the timing of the elections was such that there was no need for an interim Budget before the country went to the polls. After the formation of the new government in each of these cases, the finance minister first presented an interim Budget because he needed more time to prepare a regular Budget a few weeks later.

Pranab’s other distinction Monday will be that no other finance minister has presented two Budgets with as large a gap between them as 25 years. His last three Budgets were presented between 1982 and 1984. Apart from the tinkering with tax rates through exemptions and concessions and placing greater reliance on indirect taxes to raise resources, those Budgets will also be remembered for the economic policy mindset that prevailed during the 1980s.

His first Budget referred to the government’s rationale for seeking recourse to an SDR 5 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund under its extended fund facility. The Indira Gandhi government was under attack for seeking the IMF loan that its opponents feared would jeopardise India’s economic sovereignty. In a bid to assuage such sentiments, Pranab said in his Budget speech that the loan “will help us implement our own policies, which have been sanctioned and approved by our people and Parliament”.

In his third Budget in 1984, Pranab referred to the IMF loan again. But this time he talked about the government’s decision to return the last tranche of the loan.

In a triumphant tone, Pranab said, “Belying the prophecies of doom by many a self-styled Cassandra, the economy has emerged stronger as a result of the adjustment effort mounted by us. None of the dire consequences that we were being warned about has occurred. We have not cut subsidies. We have not cut wages. We have not compromised on planning. We have not been trapped in a debt crisis...We have come out of it with our heads high.”

Corporate India will remember Pranab’s first Budget for a different reason. In a bid to attract investments from Indians living abroad, Pranab allowed non-resident Indians (NRIs) to buy shares of companies quoted on the stock exchanges subject to specified limits, among many other incentives. This policy change led to the controversial takeover bid by London-based Swraj Paul of the Caparo group on DCM and Escorts in 1983. The bids finally did not succeed, but India Inc can hardly forget how Pranab’s first Budget shook its leaders out of their complacence.

Pranab had also extended the scheme for investment allowance for another five years till 1987. Investment allowance permitted companies to claim deduction for tax purposes on their capital expenditure according to prescribed rates. This was abolished in April 1990. The big question he is likely to answer Monday is whether investment allowance will be reintroduced in some form.

Adwani was behind the demolition of Babari Mosque

Advani Looked Disturbed... Mouth Gaping Open’
http://www.tehelka. com/story_ main42.asp? filename= Ne110709advani_ looked.asp
He saw each dome of the Babri Masjid fall one by one. Ayodhya’s sky was all smoke and fire. A first-hand account

PRASHANT PANJIAR
Photographer

Men of another god Karsewaks demolish the domes of the Babri Masjid in 1992
Photos:PRASHANT PANJIAR/INDIA TODAY
ON DECEMBER 5, 1992, I was in Lucknow covering LK Advani’s rally. All BJP leaders had been doing a yatra across UP, and India Today had asked me to follow him. That night, after the speeches subsided, all the journalists dispersed. Something told me to stay. I followed Advani after the rally and landed up at Kalyan Singh’s house. I was the only photographer there. They let me in. All the top BJP leaders — Atal Behari Vajpayee, Murli Manohar Joshi — were present, meeting inside a room. I could sense the tension in the air.
When Advani stepped out at midnight, I casually asked what time he’d leave for Ayodhya the next day. “Right now,” he replied. Suddenly Vajpayee emerged, headed for New Delhi. Something wasn’t as they had expected. I called my reporter colleague and we rushed out too.
In Ayodhya, we traced Advani at Mahant Paramhans’ ashram meeting with Vinay Katiyar from the Bajrang Dal, Ashok Singhal from the VHP and HV Seshadri from the RSS. We learned that the karsewaks were completely determined to bring down the mosque.
I followed Advani as he left the ashram. Along with other BJP and VHP leaders, he arrived at the platform facing the disputed shrine to review arrangements for symbolic pujas which were to commence at 11:30am. Chants of Jai Shri Ram had begun. 200 meters away, a stage had been set up on an open terrace in a building called the Ram Katha Kunj. Advani walked to the dais. I followed. From the edge of the terrace, diagonally, I could only see the domes of the Babri Masjid, but nothing beyond and below.
All the Sangh leaders — Uma Bharti, Sadhvi Ritambara, Vijay Raje Scindia, MM Joshi, Seshadri, Advani, Pramod Mahajan — were on the stage. Somehow they thought I was a VHP photographer so they let me stay. Most other photographers were at the puja tents. Little did they know that RSS sewaks had already been appointed to stop them from clicking the moment the demolition began.
Back on the stage, Advani and Seshadri looked nervous. The pujas began; so did the speeches. At around 11:30am people started climbing the domes. Photographers started clicking. The karsewaks pounced on them. They were pushed into a room and locked up. Those who resisted were beaten. “We’ll break your legs if you try to come out,” they were told.
I was the only photographer who had a clear view of the domes. Through the lens, I could see men with iron rods beating on a dome. There was laughter on the stage. Suddenly, a larger group of people appeared on the top of the dome, and it looked like the beginnings of a serious attack. At this point, I turned towards the leaders. I could see the faces of Advani and Seshadri. They looked disturbed. A little later, I would see them in front of the stage wide-eyed, with their mouths gaping open. Around them, the other leaders on stage looked pleased with themselves. It seemed that Advani was trying to signal to the other VHP leaders – ‘Enough, now call them down.’ But the others weren’t satisfied and wanted ‘a little more’. This was when I began to understand the urgency of the previous night in Lucknow. I think the BJP leaders received information that the karsewaks weren’t going to listen to them. Vajpayee rushed to Delhi to damage control. Advani rushed to Ayodhya early and Kalyan Singh stayed in Lucknow. I think Advani had been promised by the Ram Janambhoomi movement that they’d create a ruckus but ensure the mosque is not demolished. But this doesn’t absolve Advani of culpability.
Meanwhile, the others were laughing in great delight. When the first dome began to crack, there were loud cheers from Uma Bharati, Sadhvi Ritambara and Scindia. They egged on the karsewaks with chants of “Ek Dhaka Aur Do, Babri Masjid Tod Do”.
By this time, I received information that most of the other photographers had been beaten up. I realised that I was the only one who could photograph the domes falling. I knew I had to be careful. By mid-day, the domes were being attacked with full force. I saw people walking away from the Masjid carrying long pillars on their head.
At one point, I overheard Advani ask Pramod Mahajan to go ‘check what was going on’. Advani never left the stage, but all the other leaders were doing trips back and forth. Mahajan came back, and I overheard again. “Nothing can be done. They’ve tied ropes from behind. They will pull down the domes.”
It got hotter by mid-afternoon. I had been there the entire day without food or water. I remember sitting on a chair at one point, my head falling in a slump. A swami came up to me and asked, “Why is your head down? Are you not happy (about the demolition)?” By 4:30pm, two of the domes were gone. I shot the sequence. Initially there had been a lot of chaos but as the operation progressed it seemed to be a systematic demolition, one dome after the other.
Some of the photographers who had been beaten up had managed to escape and come to the stage. I borrowed a longer lens from one of them. His camera had been smashed and he was too shocked to shoot. With the longer lens, I shot the last dome as it fell. I saw it tilt, and remain titled for a second until it smashed on the ground. A cloud of dust rose to fill the empty air. The sight of that last dome, titled in mid-air, about to fall, remains a striking image. There was complete jubilation on the stage. Soon, I saw the city’s horizon pierced with spirals of smoke. An acharaya said into the mike, “Look at these Muslims, they are burning their own homes to malign us.” The karsewaks went berserk. The killing began. The sky was all smoke and fire.
A young woman police officer came to the Rama Katha Kunj aghast. She said the entire town was out of control. She told me about two photographers – Nitin Rai and Pablo Bartholomew, who the karsewaks were trying to lynch. She saved them by saying she’s arresting them.
‘The Muslims are burning their homes to malign us,’ said an acharya, and the karsewaks went berserk
When I came down from the stage, all I could see were logs of wood, road blocks, fire, people brandishing sticks and rods. By 7:30pm most journalists escaped from Ayodhya. I too managed to get into a car and head to Faizabad, where we were staying.
I returned later next day to photograph the aftermath. The hillock where the mosque stood was now covered with pink tents. The karsewaks had begun constructing the makeshift temple.
Seventeen years after the demolition, it isn’t the falling of the domes that has left a lasting impression. Rather, it was the acharya’s words as the smoke spiraled from Muslim homes that remains the most defining moment. The demolition of a mosque can be part of the politics of hatred, but what stopped Advani from walking up to the same microphone? One appeal from him to stop the killing would have saved many lives. The lack of that was the most defining thing for me. It was the complete absence of courage.

From Tehelka Magazine, Vol 6, Issue 27, Dated July 11, 2009

Sunday, June 28, 2009

http://features.ibnlive.com/special/web2/kings-and-queens.html

Pak among top 10 failed nations, India fares better

Washington: Pakistan, split in the middle with terrorist attacks and facing an economic crisis, remains among the top 10 failed states, says an index prepared by the renowned Foreign Policy journal.


The country, placed ninth among all countries last year in terms of its overall achievement, has improved its position only by a notch – it is placed 10th in the index for 2009 published in the July-August issue of the journal.


The annual exercise, now in its fifth year, is carried out by the journal and Fund for Peace, an independent research organisation.


The ranking is done on the basis of the following factors: demographic pressure, refugees/internally displaced persons (IDPs), group grievance, uneven development, economic decline, delegitimisation of the state, public service, human rights, factionalised elites and external intervention.


The top 10 failed states in the latest list are: Somalia, Zimbabwe, Sudan, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Iraq, Afghanistan, Central African Republic, Guinea and Pakistan.

India is placed 87th among the 177 countries under study, with its score showing an improvement over the previous year. But its neighbours fare badly in this ranking, with Sri Lanka placed 12th, Bangladesh 19th and Nepal 25th.


At the other end of the spectrum, the bottom 10 in the list are the top achievers: Norway, Finland, Sweden, Switzerland, Ireland, Denmark, New Zealand, Australia and the Netherlands.


Foreign Policy noted that it is "a sobering time" for the world's most fragile countries, what with the global financial meltdown, natural disasters, and government collapse.


"Yemen may not yet be front-page news, but it's being watched intently these days in capitals worldwide. A perfect storm of state failure is now brewing there... Many worry Yemen is the next Afghanistan: a global problem wrapped in a failed state.


"It's not just Yemen. The financial crisis was a near-death experience for insurgency-plagued Pakistan, which remains on IMF life support...All indications are that 2009 will bring little to no reprieve," the journal said.